Increased climate tipping risks from temperature overshoots

In Paris 2015, the global community agreed to keep global warming well below 2.0°C aiming to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, recent research has shown that overshooting this temperature guardrail is becoming increasingly likely and several climate data teams across the world recorded 2024 as the first individual year with a global warming level above 1.5°C.

Such temperature levels endanger critical components of the Earth system, the so-called climate tipping elements such as the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or the Amazon rainforest. In this presentation, we will show the latest evidence on how overshooting temperature targets increases tipping risks. In particular, we will discuss the role of overshooting the 1.5°C and 2.0°C for the stability of critical Earth system components, and also assess the likelihood for climate tipping cascades beyond these global warming levels.